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Analysing knowledge
The knowledge that has been gathered needs to be analysed to build
an evidence base to support the forthcoming strategy and policy
design work. Providing an objective, factual foundation is very important,
and will help to ensure that all stakeholders have the same understanding
of the issues at hand. Some flexibility may be needed to modify the
original problem definition in the light of the analysed knowledge.
Current Position
It is important to generate an accurate and
comprehensive picture of the current state of affairs. Using historical
time-series data to show trends over time, it is also helpful to explain
the drivers of change that have resulted in the need for the strategy
project. Techniques such as modelling and market
analysis can be used at this stage to understand the dynamics and
economics of the system.
Relative Position
Making value judgements about the current position is
made easier if it is placed in context. Using international
comparisons and benchmarking can be a
powerful way to learn lessons from other countries or policy areas and set
expectations for what can be achieved.
Possible Futures
Finally, techniques such as forecasting,
scenario development and counterfactual
analysis should be used to build on an objective view of current
reality and trends to generate insights into possible futures. Potential
risks, shocks or uncertainties that may cause deviation from expected
trends should also be identified. This will ensure that the team has the
best possible chance of developing a strategy that will not only address
current issues, but also remain effective into the future.
Useful links:
> modelling
> market analysis
> international comparisons
> benchmarking
> forecasting
> scenario development
> counterfactual analysis
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